A recent report by the Las Vegas Review-Journal noted a large increase in slot hold over the last two decades. The story goes beyond the data.
Slot holds cover more than reels and video penny games. Video poker, video keno, and electronic table games are also reported under the same data. It is all lumped together. That is why slot holds are only a part of the story.
Slot machines hold an average of about 10%. The range is typically 8% to 12%. Old-fashioned reels tend to be on the lower end of the range, while modern high-variance titles are on the higher end.
Video poker lowers the slot hold
All serious video poker players know how much worse paytables are today than just a few years ago. Full-pay Deuces Wild (100.76% return) is completely dead. There is only one full-pay Joker Poker (100.64%) machine left in Nevada. Most casinos have removed 10/7 Double Bonus (100.17%), with most Station Casinos properties being a rare exception.
It is not just the 100% games disappearing. Cosmopolitan is the last MGM Resorts casino in Las Vegas left with 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%). Most Las Vegas Strip casinos require players to bet five coins at the $10 denomination or higher to get any 99% video poker game.
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Downtown has also seen major video poker downgrades in recent years. The only El Cortez video poker that returns over 99% is on antique coin droppers. Last year, Downtown Grand suffered one of the worst video poker downgrades we have ever seen. Boyd Gaming removed all the 10/7 Double Bonus Poker games from its downtown properties. However, the company recently added $1, $2, and $5 9/6 Jacks or Better to most of its downtown bartops. Four Queens is the last downtown casino with 10/7 Double Bonus. It is only available in the $0.25 denomination after the $1 games were removed from the floor last year.
Another notable observation is the loss of many video poker games from casino floors. These have been quietly replaced by video slots or electronic table games. Circa opening is also believed to be part of the decline in downtown slot returns.
Video poker games hold much higher than the expected return for a variety of reasons. It is a game of skill. Strategy mistakes increase the casino’s hold. Not playing five coins lowers the royal flush payout on most games. This increases the house advantage. The average video poker game holds about 2%. When adding player errors, we estimate the casinos hold 2-3% more, making the house win on these games in the 4-5% range. Strip casinos hold more due to worse paytables and lower-skilled players, while locals joints hold much less due to higher-skilled players and better paytables.
Video keno holds about the same as slots
Video keno is often found on video poker machines. A few are standalone games. Most locals casinos have 5-8% paytables for video keno. U1 machines, primarily found at Dotty’s and its related brands, typically hold 2-6% for video keno.
Strip casinos usually have the worst available paytables for video keno, with holds in the 8-14% range. Downtown is a mix of good and bad ones. It all averages out to be a little better than slots, and likely about the same as the slot average reported.
Electronic table games also hold less than slots
Electronic table game availability was limited before the pandemic and nearly non-existent in the 2000s. These games hold about what an average video poker machine does. Electronic table games have a higher average bet than slots, but play much more slowly.
Bubble craps games have bets as low as about 0.3% when taking full odds on line bets. These games also have side bets and props that hold over 10%. This tends to average out to about 3% to 4%.
Most Las Vegas video blackjack pays 6:5. Only a handful of 3:2 video blackjack games exist. While a 6:5 video blackjack game holds about 2%, there are side bets with a higher edge, and strategy mistakes that at least double this amount. That puts the 6:5 game’s hold in the 4% to 5% range and the 3:2 one around 3%. Even-money blackjack on Game King machines is about 1% worse for players.
Baccarat and roulette have no skill element and few side bets. These games will hold about the expected amount. Baccarat Banker and Player bets have house advantages of 1% to 1.5%, depending on whether it is a no-commission version or a traditional game. The Tie bet has a hold of 14%. Baccarat side bets also hold in this range. These machines likely also hold 3% to 4%.
Most video roulette is double zero. All bets, except the rarely used Basket one, have a 5.26% house advantage. The lack of side bets means these games hold about the same number.
Not all roulette is created equal. There are a few single, triple, and even quadruple zero machines on Las Vegas casino floors. New roulette ETGs like Reel Roulette, Roulette Xplosion, Power X Roulette, and Roulette X short-pay straights in exchange for a random multiplier. These bets likely hold about the same as a standard video slot machine.
Big wheel is the only electronic table game with a larger house advantage than slots. All bets are double-digit percentages, with some over 20%. Newer big wheel versions have jackpot slots that are impossible to calculate due to random multipliers.
Other regions having lower hold percentages than the Strip likely means it just has more video poker
Over the years, the Las Vegas gaming market segments with the lowest slot holds are typically in North Las Vegas and Boulder Highway, which also includes Henderson, all the way to M Resort. It is unlikely the slots have substantially higher returns than other markets. The most realistic explanation is that these casinos have a disproportionate percentage of video poker players, as locals prefer that game over slots due to the higher return.
In the past, casinos like El Cortez, Las Vegas Club, and Rampart have made claims that their machines are a certain percentage looser than the market average. It is unlikely their slots were programmed to return much more than average. These casinos had a high percentage of video poker machines in the slots category at the time of these claims.
A game with a 7% house edge is not terrible, as the Las Vegas Strip average implies. However, as noted with the other games in that data, slots hold double or triple the number of other options on the casino floor. Understand that when you sit at a slot machine, you are probably not playing a game that only holds 7%.
